Attempt to understand public-health relevant social dimensions of COVID-19 outbreak in Poland

Recently, the whole of Europe, including Poland, have been significantly affected by COVID-19 and its social and economic consequences which are already causing dozens of billions of euros monthly losses in Poland alone. Social behaviour has a fundamental impact on the dynamics of the spread of infectious diseases such as SARS-CoV-2, challenging the existing health infrastructure and social organization. Modelling and understanding mechanisms of social behaviour (e.g. panic and social distancing) and its contextualization with regard to Poland can contribute to better response to the outbreak on a national and local level. In the presented study we aim to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 on society by: (i) measuring the relevant activity in internet news and social media;(ii) analysing attitudes and demographic patterns in Poland. In the end, we are going to implement computational social science and digital epidemiology research approach to provide urgently needed information on social dynamics during the outbreak. This study is an ad hoc reaction only, and our goal is to signal the main areas of possible research to be done in the future and cover issues with direct or indirect relation to public health.

Trends in interest of COVID-19 on Polish Internet.

INTRODUCTION: This study aims to investigate the social interest in SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 in the Internet media during the epidemic in Poland and serves as a complement to longitudinal surveys monitoring public perception in real time. METHODS: We quantitatively analyzed "coronavirus" digital footprints on the Internet, in particular, on Google, Twitter, YouTube, Wikipedia and electronic media represented by EventRegistry, from 15.01 to 07.04.2020 (before and after official introduction of COVID-19 to Poland on 04.03.2020). We present results on trend analysis supported by statistical techniques. RESULTS: We identified six major temporal clusters of the interest on the topic COVID-19: 1) Chinese, 2) Italian, 3) Waiting, 4) Mitigations, 5) Physical distancing and Lockdown, 6) Anti-crisis shield. There was an exponential increase of the interest when the Polish government "declared a war against disease" around 11/12.03.2020 with a massive response activity. Later on, there was a decay in the interest with additional phases related to physical distancing and an anti-crisis legislation act associated with pronounced local peaks. We have found that declarations of response strategies by the Polish prime minister or the minister of health gathered the highest attention of Internet users. So already enacted or in force events do not affect the interest to such an extent. We have observed very weak or even negative correlations between a colloquial search term "antiviral mask" in Google, encyclopaedic definition in Wikipedia "SARS-CoV-2" as well as official COVID-19 incidence series, implying different mechanisms governing the search for knowledge, panic related behaviour and actual burden of COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Traditional and social media do not only reflect reality, but also create it. Interest in COVID-19 (measured by topic intensity on the Internet) is unrelated to the officially notified viral pressure (measured by incidence) and probably physical risk of acquiring infection in Poland. As traditional media are ahead of social media in time, we advise to choose traditional news media for a quick dissemination of information, however for a greater impact, social media should be used. Otherwise public information campaigns might have less impact on society than expected.